So now it’s looking like Rudy’s not going to go for the governorship. This leaves Lazio as the only apparent Republican candidate, which is pretty much a dream situation for the Democrats. As a result, that race isn’t so much interesting anymore. If Cuomo wants it, he’ll take it. Even Paterson has a decent shot against Lazio.
Sadly, Rudy’s still the most interesting part of the 2010 milieu. Liz Benjamin at the Daily News writes about why Albany doesn’t make sense for Giuliani. The gist:
“the ongoing circus in the state Senate, combined with Democratic Assembly Speaker Shelly Silver’s iron grip on Assembly matters, had convinced Giuliani that a Republican governor would have little ability to get things done quickly in Albany.”
Word has it he’s looking at Gillibrand’s Senate seat. The idea is that as a Senator, he’d be more independent and able to affect things pretty much from the get go. And the seat, vacated by Hillary Clinton, expires in 2012, so it would be a perfect stepping stone for another Presidential run. It seems fairly obvious that’s what he has in mind. Like Pataki, Rudy sees himself more as an executive than a legislator.
But as I see it, he’s still taking a risk. Liz says Albany doesn’t make sense for Rudy. I’d widen that to say that New York doesn’t really make much sense for him. (Unfortunate for him, as it’s the only state he’s got.) Mitt Romney’s near-absurd contortions going into the 2008 race should have demonstrated that the kind of Republican who wins statewide office in the Northeast isn’t all that well positioned to win a Republican primary. NY-23 showed us that the Palin/Beck wing of the party has only grown stronger since then.
So how does Giuliani win what’s sure to be a nationally publicized campaign in New York without alienating the 2012 primary crowd? It seems like he has two choices.
Note: Accidentally deleted this. Reposting...
First, he could go balls out conservative out of the gate, and bank on his name recognition and constant repetition of 9/11 to carry him against the still relatively unknown Gillibrand. That strategy didn’t work so well for him in last year’s primaries, but the Giuliani name in probably somewhat stronger in New York than, say, Nebraska. Still, pretty risky.
Alternately, he could soften his image for the duration of the race, playing up his social liberal side. We would once again see the divorcing, occasionally cross-dressing, cohabiting with homosexuals Rudy Giuliani. For a moment. As soon as he hit the Senate, he’d go hard right. With no intention of running for Senate again, he’d have no incentive to accurately represent the population of New York. The goal here would be to accumulate a Senate record conservative enough to push memories of the campaign out of primary voters’ minds.
Frankly, I think any strategy which banks on voter ignorance is a worthwhile plan. Thoughts?
No comments:
Post a Comment